▸ MMA · TERMINAL │ LOBBY │ UNIVERSAL TRACK RECORD │ RANKED: 10

[06]UNIVERSAL TRACK RECORD

Cross-event channel performance. Per-pick-type accuracy is the headline metric — flat W-L conflates binary moneyline picks with multi-outcome props. Recency = past events. Calibration shows the gap between definitive vs lean conviction.
[ LOBBY ] [ UNIVERSAL TRACK RECORD ]
▸ HOW METRICS WORK
LAST 5 EVENTS — each bar is one event the channel covered. Bar height encodes how much that event's moneyline accuracy deviated from the channel's lifetime average. Bar above the baseline (green) = they were hotter than usual that week; below (red) = colder. Reading direction: oldest event on the LEFT, most recent on the RIGHT.
CALIBRATION GAP — measures whether the channel's conviction predicts their accuracy. Formula: CG = (accuracy on DEFINITIVE picks) − (accuracy on LEAN picks). A "definitive" pick is when the analyst commits ("I'm taking Khamzat"); a "lean" pick is hedged ("leaning Khamzat but it's close"). Positive gap = they pick more accurately when sure of themselves (good calibration). Negative gap = their leans are more accurate than their locks — usually means they lock too aggressively. ~0 = conviction has no predictive value either way. Example: definitive 70% acc on 100 picks vs lean 55% acc on 60 picks → CG = +15.0.
RANK CHANNEL SAMPLE MONEYLINE ACCURACY LAST 5 EVENTS · vs LIFETIME AVG CALIBRATION GAP
— LOW SAMPLE (under 100 ml picks) —
#01 LucasTracyMMA low sample (<100 ml) 65
72.3%
100%
0%
100%
66%
0%
-29.0 def 71.0% · lean 100.0%
#02 TheWeasle low sample (<100 ml) 85
70.6%
54%
76%
76%
76%
53%
+18.5 def 73.0% · lean 54.5%
#03 We Want Picks graded moneyline picks 974
65.4%
75%
46%
69%
57%
100%
+3.3 def 66.1% · lean 62.8%
#04 MMA EXPERTS graded moneyline picks 1010
64.4%
50%
46%
53%
50%
71%
+8.2 def 65.2% · lean 57.0%
#05 Bedtime MMA low sample (<100 ml) 73
64.4%
100%
100%
76%
53%
71%
+12.9 def 66.7% · lean 53.8%
#06 THE MMA GURU graded moneyline picks 714
62.2%
46%
61%
61%
76%
85%
+4.5 def 62.4% · lean 57.9%
#07 Lucrative James graded moneyline picks 520
61.0%
30%
90%
100%
0%
80%
+17.1 def 67.1% · lean 50.0%
#08 Tim Welch low sample (<100 ml) 71
59.2%
50%
33%
50%
100%
33%
+20.3 def 63.2% · lean 42.9%
#09 Belal Muhammad low sample (<100 ml) 39
59.0%
0%
50%
100%
33%
0%
+10.0 def 60.0% · lean 50.0%
#10 Mighty low sample (<100 ml) 81
53.1%
60%
25%
50%
0%
50%
-1.6 def 52.9% · lean 54.5%
ACCURACY BY PICK TYPE [≥10 graded picks]
Different pick types have different difficulty baselines — 50% on moneyline is breakeven, 33% on a binary method-call is breakeven. Color-coded vs the baseline for that pick type: ● above · ● at · ● below.
LucasTracyMMA · 65 ml picks
winner 72.3% 47-18 of 65
method 56.1% 23-18 of 41
rounds ou 45.5% 5-6 of 11
method compound 46.4% 13-15 of 28
round finish 46.7% 7-8 of 15
decision type — no data
goes distance 50.0% 23-23 of 46
TheWeasle · 85 ml picks
winner 70.6% 60-25 of 85
method 52.0% 39-36 of 75
rounds ou 32.4% 11-23 of 34
method compound 39.6% 19-29 of 48
round finish 30.2% 13-30 of 43
decision type — no data
goes distance 49.3% 37-38 of 75
We Want Picks · 974 ml picks
winner 65.4% 637-337 of 974
method 42.7% 159-213 of 372
rounds ou 45.8% 146-173 of 319
method compound 36.1% 137-242 of 379
round finish 21.1% 23-86 of 109
decision type 31.8% 7-15 of 22
goes distance 43.7% 253-326 of 579
MMA EXPERTS · 1010 ml picks
winner 64.4% 650-360 of 1010
method 50.5% 480-471 of 951
rounds ou 54.4% 294-246 of 540
method compound 47.1% 277-311 of 588
round finish 29.6% 42-100 of 142
decision type 49.7% 81-82 of 163
goes distance 52.3% 546-498 of 1044
Bedtime MMA · 73 ml picks
winner 64.4% 47-26 of 73
method 40.0% 26-39 of 65
rounds ou 30.0% 6-14 of 20
method compound 29.0% 9-22 of 31
round finish 23.5% 4-13 of 17
decision type — no data
goes distance 38.2% 26-42 of 68
THE MMA GURU · 714 ml picks
winner 62.2% 444-270 of 714
method 44.8% 194-239 of 433
rounds ou 22.8% 46-156 of 202
method compound 31.4% 105-229 of 334
round finish 17.2% 34-164 of 198
decision type 32.6% 15-31 of 46
goes distance 41.2% 207-296 of 503
Lucrative James · 520 ml picks
winner 61.0% 317-203 of 520
method 44.1% 146-185 of 331
rounds ou 31.2% 54-119 of 173
method compound 37.2% 106-179 of 285
round finish 24.4% 33-102 of 135
decision type 41.7% 10-14 of 24
goes distance 44.1% 188-238 of 426
Tim Welch · 71 ml picks
winner 59.2% 42-29 of 71
method 54.2% 32-27 of 59
rounds ou 46.2% 12-14 of 26
method compound 28.6% 6-15 of 21
round finish — no data
decision type — no data
goes distance 54.1% 33-28 of 61
Belal Muhammad · 39 ml picks
winner 59.0% 23-16 of 39
method — no data
rounds ou — no data
method compound — no data
round finish — no data
decision type — no data
goes distance 60.0% 6-4 of 10
Mighty · 81 ml picks
winner 53.1% 43-38 of 81
method — no data
rounds ou 66.7% 8-4 of 12
method compound 60.0% 6-4 of 10
round finish — no data
decision type — no data
goes distance 60.0% 6-4 of 10